Introduction Computer
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Technology is advancing rapidly, even explosively.
To assess the impacts
of information systems, the current state of this technology and where it is
heading must be understood.
The capability that
information technology puts in the hands of the computer user determines the
nature of the applications that are developed.
Developmental trends
are already shaping the nature of the information-based services that will be
provided in the coming decade.
New services that
make use of the growing integration of telecommunication and information
technology are being designed and implemented; and both industry and Government
are looking at a wide range of innovative products and services that will be
used by the in-home information system of the future.
The nature of the technology as it evolves will also
influence the structure of the industry associated with it.
Companies that
specialized only in components are beginning to market computer systems;
companies that sold only general purpose computer systems are beginning to
market consumer products that incorporate these systems.
For the purposes of
this study, emphasis has been placed on what information systems can do rather
than on the fundamental nature of electronic technology.
Many interesting
developments now in the laboratory, such as Josephson junctions, may
not fundamentally change either the nature of the systems that are designed or
the purposes to which they will be put, particularly over the next 10 years.
Other developments,
such as the microprocessor, are today revolutionizing the ways in which
computers are used as well as the thinking about their potential social
impacts.
Overall, the
anticipated changes from laboratory developments over the next several years
will be more of degree than of form.
A Josephson junction
is a microscopic-size electronic logic device that operates at the temperature
of liquid helium. I t is very fast and uses very little power.
Hardware
Computer electronics
are experiencing an extraordinary drop in price, increase in power, and
reduction in size.
In 1977, the Privacy Protection Study Commission estimated
that the cost of com putting would drop by a factor of more than 100 during the
20-year period from 1970 to 1990.
This means that the
million dollar computer of the 1960’s will cost less than a thousand dollars in
the late 1980’s
Concomitantly, during this same period calculating speed is
expected to increase a hundredfold.
In 1970, the largest
processors performed 10 million operations per second, today they perform 100
million, and by 1990 there will be a processor that will perform 1 billion.
In addition to greater speed, new designs can also greatly
increase the power of future computer systems.
The large computer that occupied one or several rooms in the
late 1960’s will fit in a desk drawer by the late 1990’s, and a medium-size
computer will fit in a briefcase or even a coat pocket.
These trends do not
necessarily mean that in all cases the costs of purchasing, programing, and
operating a large computer application system will decrease.
Rather, more work
will be done for the equivalent number of dollars.
There will be a great expansion in the number of computers
being used in business, education, and the home.
This effect is already being seen. The home computer boom,
which was the first big stimulus for the computer retailing stores, has fallen
off slightly, only to give way to a new marketing thrust aimed at small
businesses.
The hand calculator, which has become a ubiquitous tool, is
already being supplanted.
A small hand-held
computer is now available in the consumer market, and electronic calculators
are being built into wristwatches.
Computers are also
being used as part of office automation.
Computers will be used as components in a wide range of
consumer products.
With the advent of an
integrated circuit microprocessor that will sell in mass quantities for $1 or
less, the use of the computer for controlling everyday devices in the home and
at work will become commonplace.
Computers are already
being used or designed to control such devices as clothes washers, sewing
machines, and home thermostats, automobile engines, sprinkler systems,
typewriters, filing systems, electric lights, and cash registers.
While many applications will involve simply substituting
electronic for mechanical control, the increased “intelligence” incorporated in
the products will be used to provide such additional features as energy
conservation or self-diagnosis of errors, and to give more flexible control to
the user.
New products and
services based on computer and telecommunication technology will become
available. In addition to adding computer control to familiar products, the new
computer technology will be used to provide a new range of products and
services for the home and business.
The video game and
home computer are just the first of a long line of computer based information
products and services that will appear.
(Electronic funds transfer and electronic mail, two examples
of information services, are examined in separate OTA reports.) There will be a continuing, rapid increase in
the power of very large computer systems.
Advances in speed,
efficiency, and microelectronics coupled with new design concepts will produce
computers in the 1980’s that are far more powerful than the biggest ones now
available.
This type of power is
useful for a limited but important set of computational applications, e.g.,
improved systems for weather prediction.
Furthermore, systems that manage very large data bases
require very powerful computer processors, particularly when sophisticated
searches and analyses must be made.
Software
Software technology is expanding steady ly, although not as
rapidly as the hardware.
Computer programs are sets of basic instructions that tell
the computer the steps to take in doing a task. Programs can contain millions
of instructions, and their design is as varied as the number of ways computers
are used.
While computer
scientists have been successful in developing theoretical models of computer
hardware logic, efforts to build an equivalent theory of programs have not been
rewarding to date.
Thus, developing
systematic techniques for creating, testing, and monitoring computer software
has been a slow and tedious process.
Some experts maintain
that programing is still more of an art than a science.
The continuing
R&D on programing languages and software engineering will provide a flow of
improved techniques and software tools, but the rate of improvement will not
match the explosive growth in hardware capability.
New software
techniques will allow computers to process a wider variety of data.
Traditionally, computers have processed either numerical or
alphabetic data structured in very rigid formats. However, software for
processing text, graphic images, and digitized voice is developing rapidly in
addition to software for processing data alone.
The result will be
new families of products and services affecting Government, industry, and the
citizen at home. Software technology is the limiting factor in controlling the
rate at which new applications appear
Many homes will have small computers or computer terminals,
and those that do not will likely contain telephones and television sets that
have been equipped with computer control.
All of these devices
will provide links from the home and office to a multitude of information
services provided over a variety of communication channels such as television
broadcast, telephone, or cable lines.
Processors
The 1970’s have seen continual dramatic improvements in the
characteristics of the components from which computers are made.
It is expected that
this trend will continue through the 1980’s, with computing hardware becoming
remarkably inexpensive and efficient.
The decline in cost
per logic function from 1960 projected to 1990 is shown in figure 8.
In 1960, the price of a logic gate ranged from $1 to $10 per
unit, depending on speed.
By 1990, that price is expected to range from a few
thousandths of a cent to a few tenths of a cent per gate.
This continuing
decline is based in large part on the dramatic increase in capability of
semiconductor chips, as illustrated in figure 9.
There has been a
parallel increase in the speed of processing. In 1960, the fastest machine
executed about 1 million instructions per second.
By 1990, there
probably will be computers that will execute a billion or more instructions per
second, a thousand fold increase in speed. This combination of increased speed
and decreased cost for logic components results in a steady decline in the cost
of computation.
The drop in the costs of computing on IBM systems that are
roughly equivalent, over the period 1952 through 1980, is shown in figure 10.
These gains have all
been due to progress in integrated circuit technology, the process by which
electronic components are printed on small chips of silicon.
Using these chips as components has resulted in a steady
shrinkage of the size of computers from assemblages that filled several rooms
to the current desk-top versions.
Data Communication
The ability to move data quickly over long distances through
the use of new digital communication technology has had a significant impact on
the design and use of information processing systems.
Designers now have the opportunity to build systems with
greater power than was previously possible, enhancing their ability to process
information and provide it to the user in a timely manner.
More importantly, however, telecommunication has brought the
user closer to the computer by allowing direct interaction with the processing
system. As a result, the use of information processing technology has become an
integral part of the day-to-day work of many organizations whose operations
have become totally dependent on a computer system.
Only technology that relates directly to the development of
computer-based information systems is discussed here.
(For a detailed analysis of communication technology, see the OTA assessment report entitled, An Assessment of Telecommunication Technology and Public Policy plexity of putting together
communication-based computer system restricted its use to
applications, such as reservation systems, that had an inherent need for remote
data entry and display.
Existing
communication carriers and new enterprises are beginning to offer new data
communication services. These services are designed to provide inexpensive
high-speed communication capacity specifically designed for use by computer
systems.
With these new services available, a host of new
communication-based applications will appear over the next decade.
Traditional
communication systems have been tailored to carrying voice. The characteristics
of voice communication are quite different from those of data communication
between computers or between computers and people.
The voice telephone network, through switching, provides a
temporary line connecting two users. The charges are based on the length of the
line provided and the length of time it is made available.
Security Capabilities
Computers have handled sensitive data and programs for many
years; however, it is only recently that the need to secure them has become a
serious concern to system designers and operators.
During the social unrest of the 1960’s, concern arose over
the physical security of computer systems. They were expensive and visible
symbols and, consequently, attractive targets for sabotage.
Later, concerns over
privacy and an awareness of increasing incidents of financial computer crime
motivated the managers to take a more sophisticated look at protecting their
systems and data.
Physical security refers to techniques that physically
isolate a computer system from access by unauthorized persons. It also includes
protection of the facility from external dangers such as earthquake, fire,
flood, or power failure.
Procedural security is the set of rules by which a system
operator manages the system personnel and the flow of work in the organization.
It can include such
measures as reemployment screening of staff, work assignments that minimize
opportunities to act in inappropriate ways, auditing procedures, and controls
on the flow of work through the system.
Technical security refers to the software and hardware controls set up within the system itself.